Opinion Poll Result for Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha Constituency.

    As the election fervor sweeps across the nation, political parties have commenced their campaigns, presenting a mix of new and old promises and claims. With a total of 543 seats at stake in India, thousands of candidates are vying for victory. National parties like BJP, Congress, and AAP, along with regional parties, are asserting their influence in their respective domains. This election is primarily contested between the Congress-led INDIA Bloc and the BJP-led NDA. BJP aims to secure over 400 seats, while the INDIA Bloc is determined to restrain BJP from retaining power. It promises to be an intriguing electoral battle.

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However, our focus lies on the intriguing Anantnag-Rajouri seat, a newly created constituency post the 2022 delimitation. This constituency, born out of the 2022 delimitation exercise, stands as a symbol of the evolving dynamics within Indian democracy. Comprising a diverse array of regions, including Jammu, Kashmir, Poonch, and Rajouri, this constituency mirrors the intricate tapestry of India's socio-political fabric.Rajouri and Poonch districts, formerly part of the Jammu-Poonch constituency, have now been amalgamated with Anantnag. This constituency comprises 18 constituencies, including Anantnag, Anantnag West, Budhal, Devsar, DH Pora, Dooru, Kokernag, Kulgam, Mendhar, Nowshera, Pahalgam, Poonch Haveli, Rajouri, Shangus–Anantnag East, Srigufwara–Bijbehara, Surankote, Thannamandi, and Zainapora.

     The incumbent Member of Parliament for the Anantnag Constituency, now dissolved and redefined as the Anantnag-Rajouri Constituency, was Hasnain Masoodi from the JKNC.

      Several factors make this seat particularly intriguing. Firstly, it marks the first election after the delimitation and establishment of new constituencies in 2022. Additionally, it encompasses two regions, Jammu and Kashmir, with Poonch and Rajouri from the Jammu Region, and Anantnag, Shopian, and Kulgam from the Kashmir region.

     Moreover, it's the first general election post the abrogation of special status under Article 370 in 2019. Historically, the Pahari community has predominantly aligned with regional parties such as the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while the Gujjars and Bakarwals have largely leaned towards the Congress.

     Furthermore, the Pahari community, long advocating for ST status, finally received it in 2024 under the BJP government. While the Pahari community expresses gratitude towards BJP, the Gujjar and Bakerwal communities oppose this decision, viewing it as unjust. Their reactions at the polls will be noteworthy.

     As the election date nears, political parties are fielding their candidates from this constituency. JK National Conference has nominated Mian Muhammad Altaf (Former Minister), leveraging his existing popularity and support, particularly in Rajouri-Poonch. JK PDP has nominated Mehbooba Mufti (Former Chief Minister) and JK Apni Party has also fielded Zaffar Iqbal Manhas (Former MLC) from this constituency.  Congress is not going to feild their candidate, instead it will back JK NC Candidate, Mian Altaf. Speculations arise whether BJP will field its own candidate or indirectly support Ghulam Nabi Azad, who formed his party, DAP, after leaving Congress in 2022. The Pahari community asserts they will only support BJP if it fields its candidate directly, not a proxy. Mehbooba Mufti, though a strong contender, faces criticism for her party's role in the Article 370 abrogation. Despite being part of the Gupkar Alliance, NC and PDP have decided to contest separately. Ghulam Nabi Azad, who previously contested from Udhampur Lok Sabha seat on a Congress ticket, lost to BJP's Dr. Jitendra Singh.

Result of Opinion Poll : Anatnag Rajouri Constituency

    The opinion poll conducted by Kaangri.com based on 1304 votes reveals interesting insights into the upcoming elections.

Total votes caste till 4 April 2024 8 PM: 1304

Total votes caste till 5 April 2024 8 PM: 2200

The opinion poll survey conducted by Kaangri.com for the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha Constituency provides a detailed insight into the evolving dynamics of the electoral landscape. The survey, conducted on two consecutive days, 4th April and 5th April, offers a comparative analysis of the shifting preferences among voters.

On the 4th of April, the survey indicated Mehbooba Mufti (Former Chief Minister) of the PDP securing 16.6% of the vote share, positioning her as a notable contender in the race. However, Mian Muhammad Altaf from the NC emerged as the frontrunner with a significant lead, garnering 33.1% of the vote share. The BJP followed closely behind, capturing 26.4% of the vote share, reflecting its formidable presence in the constituency. Zaffar Iqbal Manhas of the Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad of the DAP garnered 7.4% and 6.4% of the vote share, respectively. Additionally, a portion of the electorate expressed support for other parties, contributing to the diverse political landscape.

The subsequent day, on 5th April, witnessed notable fluctuations in the survey results. Mehbooba Mufti's support slightly increased to 17.1%, showcasing a marginal rise. However, Mian Muhammad Altaf experienced a significant surge in his vote share, soaring to 48.7%, consolidating his position as the leading candidate by a considerable margin. Conversely, the BJP witnessed a decline in its support, dropping to 17.8% of the vote share. Similarly, Zaffar Iqbal Manhas and Ghulam Nabi Azad experienced slight decreases in their respective vote shares, settling at 4.8% and 5.2%, respectively. Despite these fluctuations, the electoral landscape remained dynamic, with voters showcasing diverse preferences.

      Overal,  the opinion poll survey results underscore the fluid nature of electoral dynamics in the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha Constituency. The contrasting trends observed over the two days highlight the volatility of voter sentiment and the potential for significant shifts in the political landscape leading up to the election. As the election date approaches, these survey findings serve as valuable insights into the evolving preferences of the electorate, shaping the strategies of political parties vying for victory in the constituency.

     It will indeed be interesting to observe how things unfold, with new developments emerging as the election date approaches. The ongoing survey will likely bring changes to the final opinion poll results. However, the true power rests in the hands of the voters, who have the right and authority to decide. On May 7th, they will cast their votes, determining the fate of the candidates, which will be revealed when the EVMs are opened on June 4th, the day of the results.

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